Trump's Foray Into Middle East War

Iran plays chess, not checkers.

If Iran decided to go to war with the US, it would not go at it alone. General Soleimani spent 15 years building robust alliances with key Shia players throughout the Middle East. In Iraq, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, Pakistan, Turkey, and Algeria, Shia Islamic sect. Then there are Syria, Yemen, Gaza (Hamas), and Lebanon (Hezbollah,) where Shiite numbers are smaller, but no less enthusiastic in the quest to oust the “The Great Satan.”

President Trump campaigned on the promise to end US involvement in what he called “never-ending wars." He recalled US troops based in southern Syria, a force deployed to help our Kurdish allies establish a Democratic homeland while ignoring the devastation his decision would rain upon our Ally. His decision to provoke a war with Iran by taking out its top General was a clear reversal of this policy. Why? Consider this: taking out Soleimani would provoke the Ayatollah to mobilize this network of regional players to retaliate with enough intensity to justify a declaration of war that he could later take credit for winning. Three former US President had but didn’t take the opportunity to kill the General because of the reasonable assumption that the costs of doing so far outweighed the benefits. Trump would upstage Presidents Clinton, Bush, and arch-rival Obama and do what they were too week to do. It would also divert attention from his impending Impeachment, and maybe even boost his popularity in key swing states securing his re-election. This is Vintage Trump; self-serving and dead wrong.

The Ayatollah had no choice but to retaliate against the US for having murdered his beloved General, or risk of appearing weak. While the loss of Solimani was devastating, its effect didn't rise to the level sufficient to justify the dire consequences of going to war with the US. His solution to this quandary was to undertake a middle-of-the-road military strike against US Military camps peppered throughout the region while avoiding killing US troops. This would demonstrate Iran's strength and resolve, while not handing its Commander in Chief a reason to unleash the planet's the most deadly military force on Iran and its Allies.

Iran's ultimately achieved its goals, launching two medium-range missiles at two US Military sites in Iraq. The missiles were built on the technology used in the Scud missile. Two missiles, two sites, both missed their targets. Mission accomplished.

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