Can Trump Win in 2020?

CNN recently published several editorials touting the real possibility of Trump’s re-election should the economy remain strong into Q3 2020. They site “research” which suggests that Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter and Bush 41 all failed to win second terms because each was dealt the misfortune of having to campaign during periods of economic downturn, namely The Great Depression, usurious interest rates, a full-blown, granddaddy Recession, and throw in a Nixon pardon for good measure.

Really, how much “research” is required to reach the conclusion that it ain’t easy to unseat a sitting President who enjoys a strong economy? Too many Americans vote their wallets over their principles.

But consider:

(1) Andrew Johnson, who, in 1865, succeeded an assassinated Abe Lincoln, was Impeached in The House but escaped conviction in the Senate by a single vote, couldn’t run for a second term having lost his Party’s Nomination to Horatio Seymour in 1868. Johnson’s Impeachment Legacy cut him at the knees during the Primaries and the absence of a Senate conviction appears to have held little weight, neither did a booming Economy.

(2) You say 150 years is a very long time? OK then, consider the “Blue Wave” of the 2018 mid-term elections. Pre-election Economic indicators weren’t much different then than now and the equity markets were similarly soaring. Even so, voters voted their concerns over the goings-on within the Trump Administration while at the same time, gave our precious Separation of Powers a sorely needed tweak, by restoring control of the House to Democrats.

Parallels can and should be drawn between economic considerations and the outcomes of fair elections. The validity of these relationships is obvious and should never be overlooked, lest our Candidates adopt ill-founded campaign strategies. There may, however, come into play confounding factors created by political environments that are so toxic, they morph the considerations we expect into forces that result in different outcomes. We face such an environment now and into the 2020 election.

Like Johnson, having been Impeached will be an albatross about Trump’s neck. Like the Blue Wave, preservation of the greater good will usurp short-term comfort and reason will prevail. Take that, CNN!

Comments

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